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By: Adam Stone
August 4th 2014 6:16am GMT, London UK

• Currency Pair: AUDCHF
• Timeframe: H4 (Hourly Chart)
• Trading Recommendation: Seek long entry positions on dips below 0.8455
• Take Profit Target: 0.8515 for a potential upward move of 60 pips
• Stop Loss: 0.8415 for a potential downward move of 40 pips

The AUDCHF has corrected from an intra-day high of 0.8548 reached on July 24th 2014 as predicted in our assessment published on July 29th 2014. The correction met this currency pair’s ascending support level which traces its origin to an intra-day low of 0.8341 reached on July 10th 2014. This ascending support level was confirmed during the most recent sell-off intra-day low of 0.8415 which marked the third test of this level.


After reaching its latest intra-day low of 0.8415 the AUDCHF has bounced off of its ascending support level as traders covered short positions in order to realize floating trading profits from the correction. The rally is expected to resume and economic reports could serve as a catalyst as the AUDCHF will not meet resistance until it reaches the 0.8475 level where descending resistance is located; a breakout will take this currency pair back to the 0.8515 level where the lower band of its next horizontal support awaits any rally.

The following economic data out of Australia has impacted the base currency, the Australian Dollar, of the AUDCHF currency pair:

• TD Securities Inflation – Securities inflation in Australia as measured by TD Securities Inflation rose 0.2% in July on a monthly comparison which compares to the 0.0% reported in June. This pick-up was not reflected in the annualized securities inflation which came in at 2.6% in July, down 0.4% as compared to June’s 3.0%.
• ANZ Job Advertisements – The Australian labor market slowed down in July as new job advertisements rose only 0.3% as compared to June. The small bright spot was an upward revision to June’s job advertisements which now show an increase of 4.4%.
• Retail Sales – Retail sales rose 0.6% in June month-over-month which beat economists’ expectations for an increase of only 0.3%. Consumers spend much more in June which is a positive indicator for the Australian economy and therefore the Australian Dollar. Adding to the positive news was an upward revision to May’s contraction which was reduced to 0.3%. For the second-quarter the retail sales picture looks slightly different with a contraction of 0.2% excluding inflation compared to the first-quarter. The contraction was less than the 0.5% expected by economists. The first-quarter data was also revised upward to show retail sales increased by 1.3%.

In addition the following economic data out of Switzerland is expected to impact the quote currency, the Swiss Franc, of the AUDCHF currency pair:

• Purchasing Managers Index – The Swiss PMI is the sole economic report released today out of Switzerland which means traders will increase their focus on this economic report more than usual. The PMI for July is expected to decrease by 0.9 points to 53.1 as compared to June’s 54.0. Should expectations be met it would point towards a slowdown in the expansion which will act as a bearish indicator for the Swiss Franc and further boost the AUDCHF.

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Adam Stone
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Adam Stone

As COO of GOptions, my first and foremost goal is to provide traders with the most up to date info from the markets. I have been trading the markets since 2004 and have been involved with stocks, binary options, and forex trading since then. I have had no formal market education and pride myself on a self taught approach to everything related to trading. I try to focus though on both the technical and fundamental aspects related to each trading day and bring forward the most important aspects of risk/reward in the market.
Adam Stone
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