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AUD/USD 0.76855 23:30 20.02
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EUR/JPY 120.162 23:30 20.02
EUR/USD 1.06119 23:30 20.02
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By: Adam Stone
July 30th 2014 7:00am GMT, London UK

  • • Currency Pair: EURUSD
  • • Timeframe: H4 (Hourly Chart)
  • • Trading Recommendation: Seek long entry positions on dips below 1.3390
  • • Take Profit Target: 1.3550 for a potential upward move of 160 pips
  • • Stop Loss: 1.3350 for a potential downward move of 40 pips

The EURUSD resumed its sharp correction after the European Central Bank stepped in and cuts its benchmark interest rate, marginally lending rate as well as deposit rate which took the EURUSD from an intra-day high of 1.3993 recorded on May 8th 2014 to an intra-day low of 1.3367 reached on July 30th 2014 for a correction of over 600 pips. This sharp drop resulted into the formation of a falling wedge formation which is a bullish chart pattern.
Yesterday’s economic data out of the US which reported a surge of 4.0% in its GDP added to selling pressure which was followed by the US Federal Reserve announcement where interest rates remained on hold at 0.25% and quantitative easing was reduced by $10 billion to $25 billion per month as expected. Traders sold off the EURUSD resulting in a capitulation sell-off which is another bullish sign.

EURUSD with binary options trading

The following economic data out of the Eurozone is expected to impact the base currency, the Euro, of the EURUSD currency pair:

  • • German Retail Sales – Retail sales are expected to increase by 1.0% in June for an annualized increase of 1.3%. This would mark a reversal of May’s monthly contraction of 0.6%, but a smaller annualized increase as May showed retia sales rising 1.9%.
  • • Eurozone Employment Data – The Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged 11.6% for June. The Eurozone economy has been plagued by very high unemployment figures which have dampened economic growth. The German as well as Italian unemployment rates are expected to show no change and come in at 6.7% and 12.6% respectively. In addition the German economy is expected to see a net addition of 5,000 new unemployed. Any minor improvement in the unemployment rate could send the EURUSD into a relive rally.
  • • Eurozone Consumer Price Index – Economists expect the Eurozone annualized CPI as well as core CPI for July to remain unchanged and show inflation at the consumer level at a very low 0.5% and 0.8% rate respectively. The European Central Bank is fighting deflationary pressures which prompted the broad based cuts in all three rates the ECB offers. Should inflation tick up slightly it is expected to boost the Euro which could result in a short-covering rally.

In addition the following economic data out of the US will impact the quote currency, the US Dollar, of the EURUSD currency pair:

  • • Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims – After a drop below the crucial 300,000 level initial jobless claims are expected to rise to 300,000 for the week which ended July 26th 2014. This would mark an increase of 16,000. Continued claims for the week which ended July 19th 2014 are expected to decrease by 8,000 to 2,492,000.
  • • Milwaukee ISM Data – Regional data out of the US has been mixed over the past few months and vulnerable to surprises. Economists expect the Milwaukee ISM to improve to 61.00 for the month of July. This would represent an acceleration of the expansion and compares to June’s 60.57 reading.
  • • Chicago Purchasing Manager Index – The important Chicago PMI is expected to show an increase of 0.4 points in July to 63.0 from June’s 62.6. Traders should be cautious as expectations could be too optimistic for this report and could add to downward pressure for the US Dollar after yesterday’s rally.
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Adam Stone
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Adam Stone

As COO of GOptions, my first and foremost goal is to provide traders with the most up to date info from the markets. I have been trading the markets since 2004 and have been involved with stocks, binary options, and forex trading since then. I have had no formal market education and pride myself on a self taught approach to everything related to trading. I try to focus though on both the technical and fundamental aspects related to each trading day and bring forward the most important aspects of risk/reward in the market.
Adam Stone
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