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EUR/USD, THE END OF THE DOWNTREND?

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By: Adam Stone
June 13th 2014 6:05am GMT, London UK
 
As reported yesterday, the EUR/USD did in fact test downwards, however the support level was not broken, much the chagrin of traders worldwide. The forex pair has a strong support level at 1.3525 which we truly thought would be broken, after a number of tests. We explained that the market was likely to run through the support level and carry on lower to the more critical 1.3490 level. But this wasn’t to be and the EUR/USD simply bounced off the upper bound of the support levels. From a technical analysis perspective, it could be simply more of the same today for binary options traders.

EURUSD with binary options 13-6-2014

Looking at the pattern formation on the daily charts, things are looking rather positive for at least another series of tests at the 1.3525 level. What happens thereafter is truthfully, difficult to decipher. Momentum is certainly still on the side of the USD but it’s not getting that last push to really drive it over the edge. So instead of completely busting loose, it’s busting the breaks. Over time, this is a bad sign, but it’s only been 24 hours and we are reluctant to call the USD’s uptrend dead. Not yet anyway.

The market will need to first prove that it’s over by breaking past 1.3590 to the upside. With no major news expected for the day ahead, we expect that the forex pair will actually just range trade in this rather wide range. For binary options traders, this range is likely too wide to find enough signals to parlay into profits in quick succession. As such, traders’ keen eyes may focus instead on other forex pairs or equity indices.

The S&P, for example, is nearing a full 100% retracement of the rise from last week. The index is probably not going to be able to turn this recent drop into a correction back higher and we are going to break lower. This is actually pure conjecture considering that it’s very difficult to read the market action due to the extreme nature of this latest down trend. Look for a break of the 1924.7 level today and further price action to the down side can be expected. But the likelihood of this scenario is approximately 50% as compared to the possibility of a rise back higher in a corrective manner. The possible correction will be capped however and we can’t expect a move above the resistance at 1936.

SP with binary options 13-6-2014

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Adam Stone
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Adam Stone

As COO of GOptions, my first and foremost goal is to provide traders with the most up to date info from the markets. I have been trading the markets since 2004 and have been involved with stocks, binary options, and forex trading since then. I have had no formal market education and pride myself on a self taught approach to everything related to trading. I try to focus though on both the technical and fundamental aspects related to each trading day and bring forward the most important aspects of risk/reward in the market.
Adam Stone
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