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NFP: PARDON THE NEGATVITY

BITCOIN 781.950 11:20 03.12
BitCoin/CNY 5382.550 11:20 03.12
BITCOIN 782.045 11:00 03.12
BitCoin/CNY 5383.210 11:00 03.12
BITCOIN 782.136 10:40 03.12
BitCoin/CNY 5383.835 10:40 03.12
BITCOIN 782.186 10:20 03.12
BitCoin/CNY 5384.175 10:20 03.12
BITCOIN 782.498 10:00 03.12
BitCoin/CNY 5386.325 10:00 03.12
BITCOIN 780.288 09:40 03.12
BitCoin/CNY 5371.115 09:40 03.12
BITCOIN 781.315 09:20 03.12
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Despite an incredible first day of trading for Twitter stock, markets in the US were headed in the opposite direction. The S&P ended up losing 1.32% in a very weak day. The index fell below support at 1752 and continued lower. The Dow fell 0.97% to 15593 as it fell below the very critical 16000 level. In addition, the Nasdaq, the exchange snubbed by Twitter in favor of the NYSE listing, fell a whopping 1.9% to 1657 and fell below 3900. A possible reason, at least partially, for the drop in the stocks was the very strong move higher by the USD as it soared higher by approximately 1% across many of the leading currencies.

 

Against the EUR, the USD is now trading at 1.34 and this is over 100 pips lower than yesterday’s start to the day. We explained that a move lower for the EUR/USD was certainly possible and labeled the 1.3502 as a strong support. The break should have allowed binary options traders to easily take down options with little risk. Obviously, in hindsight, this worked out. However, we already explained this twice this week and the simple analysis should have been heeded.

 

But today, not even Twitter will be able to take the attention of the moat important economic release of the month: Non Farm Payrolls. The release, each month causes much of a stir in the markets and this month will be no different. Markets are expecting 126k new jobs created in the US economy. This is going to be compared to the previous result of 148k. However, this drop should be taken into contextual consideration as the period in question here is in fact October. As such, the government shutdown that stretched over the first couple of weeks in October probably had a significant effect on hiring. Obviously governmental jobs were cut down and private hiring was likely stifled as well. We actually expect binary options traders to be in a position to witness a serious fall from the expected value.  The number seems slightly high and may find itself creating a massive drop in the stock and forex markets.

 

NFP today with binary options 8-11-2013

 

Expect a figure closer to 100k and if this does in fact occur, we expect the stock markets in the US to lose serious ground. Another 1-1.4% drop in stocks could be expected and the USD might lose up to 1.5% as well in a matter of minutes.

 

Binary options traders should be prepared for large moves regardless of the outcome of the NFP. Also, and possibly equally important, at the same time of the release of the NFP at 12:30 GMT traders can expect the release of the Unemployment Rate. The rate however is not expected to change as the difference expected in the NFP just isn’t enough to cause such a change.  As such, focus will remain solely on the NFP itself and the results of the report will lead markets to possible local lows. Pardon our negativity, it just seems like the most probable outcome.

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Adam Stone
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Adam Stone

As COO of GOptions, my first and foremost goal is to provide traders with the most up to date info from the markets. I have been trading the markets since 2004 and have been involved with stocks, binary options, and forex trading since then. I have had no formal market education and pride myself on a self taught approach to everything related to trading. I try to focus though on both the technical and fundamental aspects related to each trading day and bring forward the most important aspects of risk/reward in the market.
Adam Stone
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