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By: Adam Stone
June 6th 2014 6:05am GMT, London UK

NFP. Yes, the non-farm payrolls report is expected today at 12:30 GMT and our binary and forex traders will be getting ready to pounce on this sensitive market. Making money on this specific release is admittedly not easy. However, what makes it amazing is simply watching as the market creates these shocks and aftershocks of incredible size at the time of release. Some of the most veteran traders still find themselves mouths agape when the release hits as historically, the moves seen have been upwards of 200-300 pips in each direction. Just to provide perspective, the “pip” is the 4th digit after the 0 in a forex pair so a move today of 200 pips in one direction would mean that the EUR/USD, for example, which is trading near 1.3655 would then have the possibility of hitting 1.3855 or 1.3455 in one fell swoop.

Weekly jobless claims rose by 8,000 in the past week to 312,000. Dow Jones and Bloomberg were both calling for 310,000 claims and this increase actually managed to attract investors to the USD which headed higher, probably in speculation that the NFP will hit its target and not surprise the market today.

However, if the ADP release from Wednesday, is any indication, this is a bit out of step with logic. The ADP Employment change report showed that the US economy created less than expected jobs this past month with only 179k created as compared to over 210k expected. The previous result was 215k which already showed that the market was expecting a drop and acting accordingly. But the drop was big and such a drop today could see the NFP shoving the USD into oblivion.

NFP with bianry options 6-6-2014

The possibilities look to be be broken down into three:
1. The NFP does as expected and releases at or around 218
2. The NFP provides a more somber picture of the economy below 218
3. The NFP proves the US economy is on its way with a figure above 218

Our belief is that things will work rather linearly today. Good news will push the USD higher and bad news will have the exact opposite effect. The only worrying state then is the at expectation situation. In this case, we may see the biggest moves. The reason is, things will be pulled in multiple directions without a clear answer. Furthermore, investors across the world will immediately shift focus to the Unemployment figures which are expected to rise from 6.3% to 6.4%. Not a colossal change, but an increase in the number of unemployed in the US is probably the single most important factor in the USD’s weakness this morning. Add a worse than expected figure in the NFP to a rising unemployment number and you can find yourself witnessing a collapse of the USD in the near term. We could in fact find the USD trading as low as 1.38 against the EUR within 2-3 days. That is, assuming this release is a total disaster and most analysts do not.

As such, strap yourselves in for one of the best shows on the planet. The NFP can’t disappoint. So get involved, learn what moves and why. And most important, try to convert your opinions into dollars.

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Adam Stone
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Adam Stone

As COO of GOptions, my first and foremost goal is to provide traders with the most up to date info from the markets. I have been trading the markets since 2004 and have been involved with stocks, binary options, and forex trading since then. I have had no formal market education and pride myself on a self taught approach to everything related to trading. I try to focus though on both the technical and fundamental aspects related to each trading day and bring forward the most important aspects of risk/reward in the market.
Adam Stone
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