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By: Adam Stone
August 1st 2014 9:00am GMT, London UK

• Currency Pair: NZDUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Hourly Chart)
• Trading Recommendation: Seek long entry positions on dips below 0.8490
• Take Profit Target: 0.8790 for a potential upward move of 300 pips
• Stop Loss: 0.8440 for a potential downward move of 50 pips


The NZDUSD has corrected sharply after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%. The accompanying statement cautioned against a correction in the New Zealand Dollar and traders took this as a sign to take profits in the New Zealand currency. This took the NZDUSD from an intra-day high of 0.8835 recorded on July 10th 2014 to an intra-day low of 0.8463 reached on July 30th 2014 for a correction of almost 400 pips.
Price action is currently grinding out a new horizontal support level and is currently trending inside a lower band of 0.8463, the intra-day low recorded on July 30th 2014, and an upper band of 0.8515, the closing level from July 29th 2014. Traders should monitor price action at current levels and look for a breakout above 0.8515 which could trigger a short-covering rally and push the NZDUSD higher.

No economic news were released during today’s trading session which directly impacted the base currency, the New Zealand Dollar, of the NZDUSD currency pair but economic data out of China was released during the Asian trading session. Chinese data impacts so called commodity currencies which are currencies from economies which are heavily dependent on commodity exports.
The Chinese Manufacturing PMI for July expanded at a faster than expected clip and was reported at 51.7. Economists expected an increase of 0.4 to 51.4 from the 51.0 reported in June. This will act as a positive catalyst for the New Zealand Dollar which should find support before traders take profits and cover their short positions which could add over 100 pips to the rally.

In addition the following economic data out of the US will impact the quote currency, the US Dollar, of the EURUSD currency pair:

• Non-Farm Payroll Report – Today’s NFP report will have a huge impact on the US Dollar and every currency pair which has the US Dollar as part of the pair, regardless if it is the base currency or quote currency. Economists expect net additions of 230,000 jobs for the month of July while the unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 6.1%. Private payrolls are expected to increase by 227,000, but Wednesday’s ADP report missed estimated by 12,000 and with an average miss of roughly 35,000 in regards to the NFP report today’s release could show as little as 180,000 jobs created which will send the US Dollar into a sharp reversal.
• Personal Income and Spending – Personal income is expected to increase by 0.4% in June while personal spending is expected to follow suit with a 0.4% increase of its own. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator is expected to increase by 0.2% in June on a monthly comparison for an annualized increase of 1.7%. The core PCE Deflator is called higher by 0.1% monthly for an annualized increase of 1.4%.
• ISM Manufacturing Survey – Economists expect an increase in the ISM Manufacturing Survey for the month of July of 0.7 points to 56.0 in comparison to the 55.3 reported for June. Price Paid for July are expected to remain unchanged from June and come in at 58.0.

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Adam Stone
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Adam Stone

As COO of GOptions, my first and foremost goal is to provide traders with the most up to date info from the markets. I have been trading the markets since 2004 and have been involved with stocks, binary options, and forex trading since then. I have had no formal market education and pride myself on a self taught approach to everything related to trading. I try to focus though on both the technical and fundamental aspects related to each trading day and bring forward the most important aspects of risk/reward in the market.
Adam Stone
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